With the election tomorrow I thought it would be fun to take a look at the Moneylines for both Trump and Hillary while comparing their projected win from Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight.
Currently, 538 has Trump with a 36.2% chance of winning and Hillary has a 63.8% projected chance of winning.
When we head over to Bovada the odds are:
Next President of the United States of America
Hillary Clinton -550
Donald Trump +375
Using implied odds a Moneyline of -550 means Hillary should have projected winning chance of nearly 85%. Trump’s +375 means he should have a projection of 21%.
Clearly, the advantage is leaning more towards Donald Trump as far placing a bet. Before we place this bet though, we have to ask ourselves a question or two.
What is the public doing? We don’t know how the public is betting on this, but it’s a pretty safe guess the reason the line is paying so poorly for Hillary is the majority of betters are with her and that’s what causing the line to move. This happens in sports betting all the time. The public will load up on the favorite and it causes the line to become more and more favorable for the underdog.
In all likelihood I believe America is going to elect Hillary as the next president so I’m not rushing out to throw money on Trump. However, the payout is just too poor to even consider Hillary. Given these elections happen every four years, I’m a lot more risk adverse here. However, when you’re thinking about betting on any event you’ve got to take at least a casual glance at Implied odds to see if you’re getting hosed.
I’m curious if any of you are going to throw down a couple bucks on this election and for whom?